Google AI Overviews See Early CTR Recovery: Is the Organic Traffic Decline Leveling Off?

The Shift in Search: Understanding the AI Overview Impact

For over a year, digital marketers and SEO professionals have watched with concern as Google’s AI Overviews (AIOs) threatened to cannibalize organic traffic. However, new data from Seer Interactive suggests a potential turning point. After hitting a low point in late 2025, click-through rates (CTR) for organic results appearing alongside AI Overviews are showing early signs of a recovery.

The Numbers: A Surprising Bounce Back

According to the study, which analyzed 53 brands, 5.47 million queries, and 2.43 billion impressions between January 2025 and February 2026, the organic CTR on Google searches featuring AI Overviews bottomed out at 1.3% in December 2025. By February 2026, this figure climbed to 2.4%—representing a significant 85% jump in just two months.

The Hierarchy of Clicks: Who Wins in the AI Era?

While the recovery is promising, the data reveals a clear hierarchy in how users interact with the search engine results page (SERP) when AI is present:

• No AI Overview: Maintains the highest CTR at approximately 3.3%.
• AI Overview with Citation: Cited sources see a healthier CTR of around 2.1%.
• AI Overview without Citation: Pages that are not cited in the AIO suffer the most, with a CTR of only 0.9%.

This suggests that AI Overviews act as a filter; they handle quick, direct answers, meaning users who eventually click through are likely seeking deeper, more comprehensive information that an AI summary cannot provide.

Query Intent and AIO Distribution

AI Overviews do not appear uniformly across all searches. The study highlights a massive disparity based on user intent:

• Comparison Queries: Dominant AIO presence at 95%.
• Question Queries: High presence at 86%.
• Informational Queries: Moderate presence at 36%.
• Transactional Queries: Rare appearance at only 5%.

Interestingly, queries without AI Overviews have actually become more valuable. Their CTR rose from 2.8% in early 2025 to 3.8% by February 2026, as these results now capture a higher concentration of high-intent users.

The Stability of Paid Search

Unlike organic traffic, paid search has remained remarkably stable. The data indicates a slight increase in paid CTR (from 14.6% to 16.2%) when an AI Overview is present. Conversely, when no AIO is present, paid CTR actually saw a decline from 26% to 21.8%, suggesting that AI elements may actually push users toward paid advertisements.

Strategic Takeaways for Marketers

The overarching conclusion is that Google is not simply eliminating clicks, but redistributing them. To survive and thrive in this environment, brands must adopt a two-pronged strategy:

1. Optimize for Citations: Since cited sources perform significantly better than non-cited ones, focusing on “Generative Engine Optimization” (GEO) to earn a spot in the AIO is critical.
2. Double Down on High-Intent Content: Focus on complex, long-form, and high-value content that serves users who are looking for more than a quick AI summary.